Hiring in Tampa Bay: “Not So Fast, My Friend…”
I need to interview at least three people before I’ll make a decision.”
When pressed on why, the response usually goes something like this: “I don’t want to make a mistake, and in this market, I have more options.”
In the famous words of College Game Day’s Lee Corso: NOT SO FAST MY FRIEND!
The Perception Gap: A “Low-Hire, Low-Fire” Market
The headlines say one thing; real data says something else. You’ve likely seen the current economy described as a “low-hire, low-fire” market. While “low-hire” suggests a talent surplus, the “low-fire” reality means companies are holding onto their best people with everything they’ve got—even with Amazon announcing 16,000 corporate layoffs yesterday.
Further, our current blended unemployment rate across Tampa Bay sits at 4.6%. Compare that to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) expectation of full employment at 4.3%, and it’s clear: we aren’t in a surplus—we are essentially in a hiring stalemate.
So why do I emphasize this perception gap? Because most business leaders aren’t getting the full story and are making decisions based on incomplete information. This is why hiring managers feel the need to see multiple candidates; they see application volumes spiking, they’ve likely been burned by a recent hire, and the headlines tell them that finding a job today isn’t easy.
In response, hiring managers think they can hedge their bets by slowing down and being more cautious. But in this stalemate, slowing down often means losing the top candidate to a competitor who moves faster—or to an candidate who simply changes their mind that they don’t want to move at all after waiting too long and getting nervous about your company.
Healthcare Domination
But here is where the biggest disconnect is. People look at the top line job numbers and tell you that while hiring has slowed, overall hiring isn’t horrendous, we are more or less at a break-even point for the economy. But that’s the problem, they didn’t look deep enough. If you boil down the 2025 numbers like the Moody’s Economics Podcast did (“Fed” up with the Jobs Report – Jan 2026), the actual results are stunning:
- 97.3% of all private sector jobs gained last year were in healthcare (713,000 health care jobs gained last year out of 733,000 total jobs gained).
- If you add up all other jobs and subtract healthcare, the US actually lost 147,200 jobs from April to December 2025.
- If I look further at Florida specific data, this same trend holds true here: In Florida, Education and Health Services saw an increase of 51,400 jobs, while the next closest vertical (Government) only added 3,300 year over year. (Florida Department of Economic Opportunity)
My Expectations for 2026: The “Strategic Hold”
In this low unemployment market, the overwhelming majority of the candidates you really want aren’t in unemployment lines; they are still working for your competitors. Additionally, employees value their safety and stability as much as you do. As a result, they are in a “strategic hold,” refusing to move unless the reward clearly outweighs the risk.
Breaking this hold requires passive recruiting and relationship building—not just a job posting. If you want the best possible talent, hiring managers will need to make the move worth it for these candidates either in financial gains, or career advancement, or both. Regardless of the option you choose, the most critical aspect right now is building their trust that they are making a smart and safe move.
Bottom Line: Market Intelligence Is Critical
This is where market intelligence and passive recruiting become your competitive advantage. It’s not about an arbitrary number of interviews; it’s about the quality of the candidate and the urgency of the role.
My goal is simple: My team acts as your bridge. We save you time, effort, and likely money, by building the personal connections and providing the data that cautious candidates require, cultivating their confidence until they are ready to move. Meanwhile you are able to do what you do best, build your business.
If you’re tired of the churn, let’s grab 15 minutes. No pitch decks, no pressure, and no commitments—just a practical conversation on your goals and the market intelligence needed to win in 2026. Send me a message and let’s connect!
